Wednesday, January 28, 2009

2009 and beyond...

It's always audacious to try and predict the future, especially if you're not God.

Being me and sticking my head where it doesn't quite belong however, this is what I now (2009) think will happen in the next 10 years :
  1. America will retain it's economic dominance. The American military will continue to be the most dominant military force in the world. America will stop "nation-building" in Afghanistan, reducing it's forces to merely what is necessary for maintaining a central Asian beachhead.
  2. Rapid ageing in the "old Europe" states will constrain the ability of the EU to emerge as a capable counter force to American economic power. Anti-immigration sentiment will continue to be a factor limiting the influx of brain power needed to capitalise on the emerging world order. Traditional european acceptance of large government will result in legislative roadblocks which will limit the ability of sectors within the EU to innovate.
  3. Multi-polar, supra-national organisations will continue to polarise. The nation state will continue to remain the ultimate political unit.
  4. Economic unions will emerge, engines of growth will likely emerge from Central Asia and North America.
  5. China will undergo a period of instability followed by a period of insularity with a moderate to rapid cooling of growth. Tensions between the coastal regions and the inland regions will become a threat to Chinese unity. China will not achieve a blue sea navy capable of significant force projection. The PLA will continue to be used primarily for internal pacification.
  6. Russia will likely undergo another round of blood letting as it moves towards a sustainable economy. This evolution will continued to be paid for with petro dollars as the price of energy rebounds to it's actual cost and continues to climb. The Russian governement will succeed in establishling an adequate buffer zone around western Russia.
  7. Japan will suffer a political implosion. In the background, the Japanese armed forces will slowly take on a more aggressive role in assuring Japanese interests on foreign shores. Japanese resistance to immigration will have a significant impact on the ability of indigenous Japanese firms to innovate. Japanese firms will continue to move beyond Japan's shores to create new centers of innovation and tap new talent.
  8. India will succeed in consolidating it's economic position. Pakistan and the interwoven problem of Kashmir will continue, however, it's impact on actual Indian policy will continue to diminish. India will have a great need for infrastructure development creating an opportunity for international firms to increase involvement.
  9. Global instability will continue with the number of low intensity conflicts staying relatively constant. No significant big power confrontations of a militaristic nature will emerge between the currently existing regional powers.



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